Based on the last 12 Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash events in Germany, we expect AUDUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 66.67% chance of this. We expect AUDUSD to trend downwards 48 hours following the event release at 23 Sep 17:30 if the released value is > 52.5. A price movement of 96 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

21 Aug 17:30	23 Jun 17:30
24 Mar 19:30	24 Jan 19:30
22 Nov 19:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).