Based on the last 12 Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash events in Germany, we expect EURUSD to trend upwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 71.43% chance of this. We expect EURUSD to trend upwards 2 hours following the event release at 23 Sep 17:30 if the released value is > 52.5. A price movement of 26 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

24 Mar 19:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).