Based on the last 12 Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash events in Germany, we expect USDCHF to trend upwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 75% chance of this. We expect USDCHF to trend upwards 4 hours following the event release at 23 Oct 18:30 if the released value is > 55.1. A price movement of 24 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

21 Aug 17:30	24 Jul 17:30
23 Jun 17:30	24 Mar 19:30
24 Jan 19:30	22 Nov 19:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).