Based on the last 12 Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash events in Germany, we expect USDCHF to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 70% chance of this. We expect USDCHF to trend downwards 4 hours following the event release at 23 Aug 17:30 if the released value is > 65. A price movement of 29 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

23 Jun 17:30	23 Apr 17:30
24 Mar 19:30	19 Feb 19:30
23 Nov 19:30	23 Oct 18:30
23 Sep 17:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).