Based on the last 12 Unemployment Rate events in Germany, we expect USDCAD to trend upwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 72.73% chance of this. We expect USDCAD to trend upwards 2 hours following the event release at 31 Mar 18:55 if the released value is = 5.1%. A price movement of 15 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

28 Feb 19:55	30 Jan 19:55
03 Jan 19:55	29 Nov 19:55
30 Sep 17:55	31 Jul 17:55
01 Jul 17:55	29 Mar 19:55

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).