Based on the last 12 Unemployment Rate events in Germany, we expect USDJPY to trend upwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 71.43% chance of this. We expect USDJPY to trend upwards 4 hours following the event release at 30 Sep 17:55 if the released value is = 6.4%. A price movement of 18 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

01 Sep 17:55	28 Feb 19:55
03 Jan 19:55	29 Nov 19:55
30 Oct 19:55	30 Sep 17:55

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).