Based on the last 12 Balance of Trade events in Japan, we expect NZDUSD to trend upwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 66.67% chance of this. We expect NZDUSD to trend upwards 12 hours following the event release at 17 Mar 10:50 if the released value is > ¥420B. A price movement of 37 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

18 Nov 10:50	16 Sep 09:50
19 Aug 09:50	17 Jun 09:50

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).