Based on the last 12 Balance of Trade events in Japan, we expect EURUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 71.43% chance of this. We expect EURUSD to trend downwards 4 hours following the event release at 19 Apr 09:50 if the released value is < ¥490B. A price movement of 19 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

17 Mar 10:50	19 Oct 10:50
20 Jul 09:50	21 May 09:50
20 Apr 09:50

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).