Based on the last 12 Balance of Trade events in Japan, we expect EURUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 71.43% chance of this. We expect EURUSD to trend downwards 4 hours following the event release at 16 Jun 09:50 if the released value is > ¥-91.2B. A price movement of 18 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

19 Apr 09:50	17 Feb 10:50
18 Nov 10:50	19 Aug 09:50
17 Jun 09:50

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).