Based on the last 12 Balance of Trade events in Japan, we expect USDCHF to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 80% chance of this. We expect USDCHF to trend downwards 2 hours following the event release at 17 Feb 10:50 if the released value is > ¥-1607B. A price movement of 11 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

20 Jan 10:50	18 Aug 09:50
19 Apr 09:50	17 Feb 10:50

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).