Based on the last 12 Balance of Trade events in Japan, GBPUSD could trend upwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 75% chance of this. If the released value is > ¥-2022.6B we could see GBPUSD trend upwards 4 hours following the event release at 16 Jun 09:50.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

19 May 09:50	20 Jan 10:50
18 Aug 09:50

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).