Based on the last 12 Balance of Trade events in Japan, we expect USDCHF to trend upwards. Based on these past events there is a 83.33% chance of this. We expect USDCHF to trend upwards for 4 hours because the released value is < ¥-35.8B. A price movement of 12 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

21 May 09:50	20 Apr 09:50
23 Jan 10:50	21 Oct 10:50
19 Aug 09:50

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).