Are you on the right side of Japan Balance of Trade news event?

Based on the last 12 Balance of Trade events in Japan, we expect EURUSD to trend downwards. Based on these past events there is a 66.67% chance of this. We expect EURUSD to trend downwards for 2 hours because the released value is > ¥-37.5B. A price movement of 51 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

18 Aug 23:50
17 Mar 23:50
17 Dec 23:50
17 Sep 23:50