Based on the last 12 Balance of Trade events in Japan, we expect GBPUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 80% chance of this. We expect GBPUSD to trend downwards 2 hours following the event release at 16 Dec 10:50 if the released value is < ¥529.8B. A price movement of 46 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

20 Jul 09:50	21 May 09:50
20 Apr 09:50	23 Jan 10:50

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).