Based on the last 12 Balance of Trade events in Japan, we expect GBPUSD to trend upwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 66.67% chance of this. We expect GBPUSD to trend upwards 12 hours following the event release at 17 Feb 10:50 if the released value is < ¥-600B. A price movement of 83 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

21 Jan 10:50	16 Dec 10:50
19 Oct 10:50	20 Jul 09:50

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).