Based on the last 12 Consumer Confidence events in Japan, we expect AUDUSD to trend downwards. Based on these past events there is a 87.5% chance of this. We expect AUDUSD to trend downwards for 2 hours because the released value is < 40.6. A price movement of 11 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

29 Jan 16:00	02 Oct 15:00
29 Aug 15:00	31 Jul 15:00
01 Jul 15:00	31 May 15:00
01 Mar 16:00

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).