Based on the last 12 Consumer Confidence events in Japan, we expect GBPUSD to trend upwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 83.33% chance of this. We expect GBPUSD to trend upwards 2 hours following the event release at 30 Apr 15:00 if the released value is < 35.5. A price movement of 19 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

29 Jan 16:00	06 Jan 16:00
29 Oct 16:00	01 Jul 15:00
29 May 15:00

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).