Based on the last 12 Consumer Confidence events in Japan, we expect USDJPY to trend downwards. Based on these past events there is a 83.33% chance of this. We expect USDJPY to trend downwards for 2 hours because the released value is < 34. A price movement of 21 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

31 Jan 16:00	05 Jan 16:00
02 Dec 16:00	31 Aug 15:00
30 Apr 15:00

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).