Based on the last 12 Inflation Rate YoY events in Japan, we expect AUDUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 75% chance of this. We expect AUDUSD to trend downwards 12 hours following the event release at 21 Jul 09:30 if the released value is = 0.1%. A price movement of 19 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

21 Feb 10:30	23 Aug 09:30
19 Jul 09:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).