Based on the last 12 Inflation Rate YoY events in Japan, we expect EURUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 75% chance of this. We expect EURUSD to trend downwards 4 hours following the event release at 18 Dec 10:30 if the released value is < -0.5%. A price movement of 75 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

23 Oct 10:30	22 May 09:30
19 Mar 10:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).