Based on the last 12 Inflation Rate YoY events in Japan, we expect EURUSD to trend upwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 75% chance of this. We expect EURUSD to trend upwards 4 hours following the event release at 24 Dec 10:30 if the released value is > 0.4%. A price movement of 12 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

22 Oct 10:30	20 Jul 09:30
18 Jun 09:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).