Based on the last 12 Unemployment Rate events in Japan, we expect USDCAD to trend upwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 75% chance of this. We expect USDCAD to trend upwards 4 hours following the event release at 01 Oct 09:30 if the released value is < 2.9%. A price movement of 36 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

31 Aug 09:30	30 Jul 09:30
30 Apr 09:30	02 Mar 10:30
29 Jan 10:30	25 Dec 10:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).