Based on the last 12 Balance of Trade events in United Kingdom, we expect EURUSD to trend upwards. Based on these past events there is a 71.43% chance of this. We expect EURUSD to trend upwards for 12 hours because the released value is > £-1.4B. A price movement of 64 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

12 Mar 18:00	12 Nov 18:00
09 Oct 17:00	12 Aug 16:00
14 Jul 16:00

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).