Based on the last 12 Inflation Rate YoY events in United Kingdom, we expect AUDUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 80% chance of this. We expect AUDUSD to trend downwards 48 hours following the event release at 20 Jan 18:00 if the released value is > 0.5%. A price movement of 97 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

18 Nov 18:00	19 Aug 16:00
15 Jul 16:00	19 Feb 20:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).