Based on the last 12 Inflation Rate YoY events in United Kingdom, we expect USDCHF to trend upwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 83.33% chance of this. We expect USDCHF to trend upwards 12 hours following the event release at 19 May 16:00 if the released value is > 1.4%. A price movement of 96 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

17 Feb 18:00	20 Jan 18:00
16 Sep 16:00	19 Aug 16:00
15 Jul 16:00

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).