Based on the last 12 Inflation Rate YoY events in United Kingdom, we expect EURUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 71.43% chance of this. We expect EURUSD to trend downwards 4 hours following the event release at 14 Jul 16:00 if the released value is > 2.2%. A price movement of 28 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

16 Jun 16:00	19 May 16:00
17 Feb 18:00	20 Jan 18:00
19 Aug 16:00

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).