Based on the last 12 Balance of Trade events in United States, we expect EURUSD to trend upwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 71.43% chance of this. We expect EURUSD to trend upwards 4 hours following the event release at 05 Apr 22:30 if the released value is < $-88.5B. A price movement of 30 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

09 Mar 00:30	08 Dec 00:30
04 Nov 23:30	05 Oct 23:30
07 Apr 22:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).