Are you on the right side of United States Continuing Jobless Claims news event?

Based on the last 12 Continuing Jobless Claims events in United States, we expect NZDUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 66.67% chance of this. We expect NZDUSD to trend downwards 2 hours following the event release at 06 May 12:30 if the released value is < 3620K. A price movement of 39 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

11 Mar 13:30
04 Mar 13:30
18 Feb 13:30
11 Feb 13:30