Based on the last 12 Continuing Jobless Claims events in United States, we expect USDJPY to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 71.43% chance of this. We expect USDJPY to trend downwards 2 hours following the event release at 29 Jul 22:30 if the released value is > 3196K. A price movement of 21 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

22 Jul 22:30	08 Jul 22:30
17 Jun 22:30	20 May 22:30
06 May 22:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).