Are you on the right side of United States Continuing Jobless Claims news event?

Based on the last 12 Continuing Jobless Claims events in United States, we expect HG to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 71.43% chance of this. We expect HG to trend downwards 2 hours following the event release at 13 Jan 13:30 if the released value is < 1733K. A price movement of 6 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

16 Dec 13:30
18 Nov 13:30
04 Nov 12:30
28 Oct 12:30
21 Oct 12:30