Based on the last 12 Durable Goods Orders MoM events in United States, we expect GBPUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 71.43% chance of this. We expect GBPUSD to trend downwards 12 hours following the event release at 28 May 22:30 if the released value is > -19%. A price movement of 33 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

25 Mar 23:30	28 Feb 00:30
27 Sep 22:30	26 Aug 22:30
25 Jul 22:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).