Are you on the right side of United States Housing Starts news event?

Based on the last 12 Housing Starts events in United States, we expect GBPUSD to trend downwards. Based on these past events there is a 83.33% chance of this. We expect GBPUSD to trend downwards for 2 hours because the released value is < 1.576M. A price movement of 34 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

19 Oct 12:30
18 Aug 12:30
16 Jun 12:30
18 May 12:30
18 Feb 13:30