Based on the last 12 Inflation Rate YoY events in United States, we expect USDJPY to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 75% chance of this. We expect USDJPY to trend downwards 2 hours following the event release at 11 Aug 22:30 if the released value is > 5.3%. A price movement of 14 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

10 Jun 22:30	13 Apr 22:30
14 Jan 00:30	11 Dec 00:30
11 Sep 22:30	12 Aug 22:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).