Based on the last 12 Retail Sales MoM events in United States, we expect GBPUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 75% chance of this. We expect GBPUSD to trend downwards 2 hours following the event release at 15 May 22:30 if the released value is > -12%. A price movement of 25 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

13 Sep 22:30	15 Aug 22:30
16 Jul 22:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).