Are you on the right side of United States Retail Sales MoM news event?

Based on the last 12 Retail Sales MoM events in United States, we expect USDCAD to trend upwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 66.67% chance of this. We expect USDCAD to trend upwards 2 hours following the event release at 16 Sep 22:30 if the released value is < 1%. A price movement of 43 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

14 Aug 22:30
14 Dec 00:30
16 Oct 23:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).