We expect AUDUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past Germany Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash news events there is a 80% chance of this. We expect this to happen if the released value is > 39.6. A price movement of 18 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

24 Jan 19:30	22 Nov 19:30
22 Aug 17:30	21 Jun 17:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).