We expect AUDUSD to trend downwards for the next 4 hours. Based on these past Germany Balance of Trade news events there is a 71.43% chance of this. We expect this to happen because the released value is > €19.9B. A price movement of 40 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

07 Aug 16:00	08 May 16:00
07 Feb 18:00	09 Dec 18:00
08 Nov 18:00

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).