We expect AUDUSD to trend downwards for the next 4 hours. Based on these past United Kingdom Claimant Count Change news events there is a 75% chance of this. We expect this to happen because the released value is < 25K. A price movement of 38 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

10 Nov 18:00	15 Sep 16:00
16 Jul 16:00	21 Apr 16:00
17 Mar 20:30	18 Feb 20:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).