We expect AUDUSD to trend upwards for the next 12 hours. Based on these past Japan Balance of Trade news events there is a 66.67% chance of this. We expect this to happen because the released value is < ¥460B. A price movement of 20 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

16 Jun 09:50	21 Jan 10:50
16 Dec 10:50	19 Oct 10:50

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).