Based on past Australia Balance of Trade news events there is a 85.71% chance of USDJPY trending upwards. We expect this to happen if the released value is > A$10.5B. A price movement of 117 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

08 Dec 11:30	03 Nov 11:30
04 Aug 11:30	07 Jul 11:30
05 May 11:30	03 Mar 11:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).