We expect a $430 movement on EURUSD within 12 hours following the release of Retail Sales MoM at 05 Feb 11:30. We expect EURUSD to trend downwards 12 hours following the event release at 05 Feb 11:30 if the released value is > -4.2%. A price movement of 43 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

04 Nov 11:30	02 Oct 11:30
04 Aug 11:30	03 Jul 11:30
06 May 11:30	03 Apr 11:30
11 Jan 11:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).