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This Tuesday 05 May at 02:00 PM GMT the latest US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI number will be released.
If the number is less than than economists’ consensus there is a 80% probability that UB will trend down following the news event.

This probability is based on the last 12 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI events, in which 4 of the last 5 events where the actual number was less than than the economist consensus resulted in an down trend of UB.

Here are images of the past events:

Wednesday 04 Dec at 03:00 PM GMT:

Thursday 03 Oct at 02:00 PM GMT:

Monday 05 Aug at 02:00 PM GMT:

Friday 03 May at 02:00 PM GMT:

Disclaimer: Past performance may not be indicative of future performance