We expect EURUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past United States Balance of Trade news events there is a 75% chance of this. We expect this to happen if the released value is > $-63.8B. A price movement of 36 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

02 Apr 23:30	07 Mar 00:30
08 Jan 00:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).