We expect EURUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past United States Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index news events there is a 66.67% chance of this. We expect this to happen if the released value is > -23. A price movement of 45 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

17 Jan 00:30	22 Nov 00:30
19 Sep 22:30	15 Aug 22:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).