Based on the last 12 Balance of Trade events in Germany, we expect EURUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 66.67% chance of this. We expect EURUSD to trend downwards 12 hours following the event release at 2022-11-02 18:00 if the released value is > €1.4B. A price movement of 77 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

03 Aug 16:00

04 Apr 16:00

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).