Based on past Euro Area ECB Interest Rate Decision news events there is a 81.82% chance of EURUSD trending downwards. We expect this to happen if the released value is = 3.5%. A price movement of 105 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

03 Feb 00:15	16 Dec 00:15
27 Oct 23:15	08 Sep 22:15
09 Jun 21:45	14 Apr 21:45
10 Mar 23:45	16 Dec 23:45
09 Sep 21:45

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).