We expect EURUSD to trend downwards for the next 2 hours. Based on these past Japan Balance of Trade news events there is a 83.33% chance of this. We expect this to happen because the released value is > ¥140B. A price movement of 27 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

19 Apr 09:50	17 Feb 10:50
18 Nov 10:50	16 Sep 09:50
19 Aug 09:50

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).