We expect EURUSD to trend downwards for the next 48 hours. Based on these past United States Retail Sales MoM news events there is a 80% chance of this. We expect this to happen because the released value is > 5%. A price movement of 54 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

16 Jun 22:30	13 Sep 22:30
15 Aug 22:30	16 Jul 22:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).