We expect EURUSD to trend upwards later today. Based on these past Japan Balance of Trade news events there is a 75% chance of this. We expect this to happen if the released value is > ¥-784.1B. A price movement of 65 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

18 Aug 09:50	20 May 09:50
19 Apr 09:50

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).