We expect EURUSD to trend upwards for the next 4 hours. Based on these past Japan Consumer Confidence news events there is a 80% chance of this. We expect this to happen because the released value is < 39.8. A price movement of 33 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

02 Dec 16:00	31 Aug 15:00
29 Jan 16:00	06 Jan 16:00

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).